In his second term as president, Donald Trump has launched a destabilizing tariff war, described Canada as the 51^st state and Greenland as real estate to be acquired, deported non-citizens, deleted the term "science-based" from government websites and fired over 100,000 workers from jobs in the "deep state." Elon Musk [leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)] has vowed to slash up to $700 billion [approximately €615 billion] from government programs, and called Social Security a "Ponzi scheme." How, I wondered, are voters in deep-red eastern Kentucky responding to all this?

Over seven years of research, I got to know a variety of people in Kentucky 5, the whitest and second poorest congressional district in the nation.  In this once proud rural area, well-paying coal jobs were on the decline and an opioid crisis on the rise. Low-wage service jobs were on offer but didn't pay all the bills.  Only 18% of those over 25 held a bachelor's degree or higher, which could open the door to higher-wage work.

In the 1930s and 1990s, the region was a bastion for Democratic presidents Franklin Delano Roosevelt [in office from 1932-1945] and Bill Clinton [1993-2001]. However, in 2016, 2020 and 2024, about 80% of Kentucky 5 voters cast their ballots for Donald Trump. Approximately 45% of those registered to vote did not cast a ballot.

Enthusiasm and concern

Paradoxically, many Kentucky supporters of Trump are among the most vulnerable to his signature policies. Like a number of Republican-leaning states, a high proportion – 38% – of Kentucky's state budget comes from the federal government and a disproportionate amount of that goes to rural areas. Today, 44% of Kentucky 5 residents depend on Medicaid and nearly three out of four of the district's children qualify for food stamps.

The people I talked to between 2017 and 2024 seemed to fit into one of three camps: the enthralled, the hopeful wait-and-seers and the skeptics. The enthralled, maybe a quarter of Trump voters here, seemed to be drawn from the better-off, entrepreneurial sector, those I came to think of as the elite of the left behind in areas like Appalachia. The second camp took a hopeful but more passive stance of "wait and see."  The third camp was openly concerned – mainly about a rich guy cutting taxes for the rich and cutting benefits for the poor.

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