Aside from his determination to form a "balanced, representative and plural" government in the next few days, Michel Barnier has revealed very little about himself since his appointment as prime minister on September 5. His consultations with key figures the week of September 9 have mainly revealed the little political room he has to maneuver and the major risk he faces: becoming dependent on a vengeful right wing, which is itself dependent on the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) whose goal, as stated by Marine Le Pen on Saturday, September 14, is to push for new early legislative elections as soon as possible.

Laurent Wauquiez's change in stance says a lot. Initially, he pushed for his group of 47 MPs to support the government without taking an active role. Now, the president of the conservative Les Républicains (LR) group in the French Assemblée Nationale is actively campaigning for the position of Interior Minister.

The pressure from Wauquiez and his allies to implement "a right-wing policy" focused on "more security" and "less immigration" is telling, especially since Barnier comes from the same political family as them. In an attempt to regain influence after years of marginalization, the right has chosen to focus on issues of national sovereignty. However, the danger of competing with the far right is clear, as Le Pen's camp has no intention of losing its advantage and can use its power to overthrow a Barnier government as a strong tool for blackmail.

Defining a political line

So far, only leaders from the centrist MoDem party (part of Macron's coalition) have made efforts to curb LR's ambitions, which don't match their low number of MPs. There is a major risk of political imbalance. Still reeling from the dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale and lacking a clear direction, the presidential party is silently licking its wounds. Meanwhile, the left, convinced it faced a "denial of democracy" by being denied the prime ministership after winning more seats than any other group in the Assemblée Nationale following the recent snap parliamentary election, has started the new legislative session by adopting a stance of radical opposition. Socialist figures invited to join the government have declined, while the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance has already threatened to vote to overthrow the prime minister as soon as he sets foot in the Assemblée Nationale.

Interviewed on France Inter radio on September 12, former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin (under conservative Jacques Chirac) described Barnier's current predicament as a result of the "oddities" stemming from the political sequence opened by the failed dissolution of the Assemblée. Barnier cannot claim the legitimacy of the president, who no longer has a majority in Parliament. Nor can he draw legitimacy from Parliament itself, since he belongs to LR, which is far from being one of the winners of the legislative elections, having come only fifth.

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