Like meteorologists and all those whose job it is to predict the future, investors and companies hate uncertainty. They are ready to sell their souls to the devil, as long as they know the time and the price. We see this in France with the spectacular drop in confidence of the heads of American subsidiaries, noted by the American Chamber of Commerce in France, in the face of political disorder.

Unfortunately, it's not in their own country that they will find comfort and visibility. In his address to Congress on Tuesday, March 4, President Donald Trump did insist that "confidence is back," but that's not how financial investors feel. Since the beginning of the year, they have been deserting the stock market, and the trend is growing. The Standard & Poor's index has fallen back below its level from before the election of Trump on November 5, 2024. The enthusiasm that had prevailed in business circles at the prospect of massive deregulation and tax cuts has vanished in the face of the inconsistencies and fears inspired by his decisions.

The problem is that this climate is taking hold at precisely the moment when the first doubts are emerging about the persistence of growth in the US and about the level of the markets. Consumer confidence is falling, as are order books, and investors are questioning the level of stock market valuations. With one observation: The US stock market now represents two-thirds of the total value of the world's stock markets, compared with 40% in 2010. You'd have to go back to the 1970s, before the arrival of emerging markets like Japan and China, to find such dominance.

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