Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, wanted to be the first European leader to congratulate the anti-EU populist Geert Wilders on his success in the Dutch parliamentary elections, on Wednesday November 22. As soon as the first results were in, he called the leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV) to rejoice with him over this electoral "earthquake". "The winds of change are here!" he posted on social media platform X.

One thing is certain: Wilders's victory and change of majority in the Netherlands are not likely to make things any easier for a European Union facing major challenges, such as the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the rise of China or even the prospect of a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election in November 2024.

The meeting of European heads of state and government in Brussels on December 14 and 15 will therefore serve as a test. The 27 member states are expected to take strategic decisions, such as whether or not to open accession negotiations with Kyiv, or to review the EU's multi-annual budget, in particular to include €50 billion in aid for Kyiv between now and 2027.

However, Geert Wilders' successful party, which clearly wants to lead his country's next government, campaigned on a promise to significantly reduce the Netherlands' financial contribution, and intends to oppose any further enlargement. His electoral success follows on from a program that calls for the abolition of European regulations for agriculture and fisheries, the banning of the European flag from official Dutch buildings, and even the country's exit from the European Union – a "Nexit" – and this has obviously caused consternation in Brussels.

It comes a year after Giorgia Meloni came to power in Italy and two months after Robert Fico took power in Slovakia. Even if a pro-European coalition, led by Donald Tusk, that won the Polish election in October against the ultra-conservative PIS, the progression of the far right on the continent is undeniable and worrying.

At this point, it is not certain that Wilders, in search of allies to form a government, will become prime minister, but his victory in one of the founding states raises fears of the worst. "We'll have to wait and see which coalition comes to power – that'll take months," one diplomat told Le Monde.

In the meantime, however, the EU will have to take some major decisions, some of which require unanimity among the 27 member states, such as those on further enlargement or an increase in the EU budget to continue helping Kyiv. The Hague will therefore have to take a stand.

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