It's so Trump you'd think he was imitating himself. On Friday, January 5, in front of his supporters gathered in Mason City, a small town in Iowa, 10 days before the kick-off of the Republican primaries, the former American president indulged in one of his favorite exercises: humiliating a European leader by parodying a conversation in which he, obviously, had the upper hand.

This time, the leader was a certain "Emmanuel." "Do you know Macron? He's a very nice guy." Trump mentioned a 25% tax that France wanted to impose on American products back when he was in the White House. American negotiators couldn't get the French to listen to reason. So the American president picked up the phone and called "Emmanuel," threatening to impose a 100% tax on French wines and champagnes in retaliation. "No, no, no you cannot do that Donald," the French president begged. "I can do that. In fact, I'm just signing it right now." "No, no, no! Okay, Donald. I'm not going to join." "That was the end of it," said a triumphal Trump to his delighted audience. "It was so easy!"

Of course, the narrative is utterly fanciful: There was no 25% French tax but a 3% tax on the sales of tech giants, in 2019, and it hasn't been withdrawn. But never mind the facts. What matters is the image of righting wrongs that the candidate for a second presidential term claims to give his voters. This fantasy is the worst nightmare of European leaders – at least those who experienced it from 2017 to 2021.

Because they are the United States' primary direct partners, the Europeans will be the most exposed if Trump is re-elected, as the current state of the polls suggests. Angela Merkel, his favorite punching bag, is gone, but he'll have no trouble choosing another. The G7 and NATO summits will once again become moments of unpredictable circus – or absolute emptiness.

You can never be too careful

Tara Varma, a researcher on transatlantic relations at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said the prospect of Trump's return "is terrifying for Europeans first and foremost because of its immediate consequences for their security, while Russia continues unabated in its attacks on Ukraine and Trump has never made a secret of his aversion to multilateral organizations like NATO." No one really knows what his intentions are regarding the military alliance. But just in case, in December 2023, two US senators (one Democrat, one Republican) pushed a legislative amendment through Congress that prevents the president from unilaterally withdrawing the US from NATO. In these times of great uncertainty, one can never be too cautious!

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