With 678,000 babies born in 2023, France has set a new record for the lowest number of births since the end of the Second World War. How should we interpret these annual figures? Does this mark the end of France's exceptional birth rate? In an interview, demographer Gilles Pison, professor at the Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN, National Museum of Natural History) and adviser to the management of the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques (INED, National Institute of Demographic Studies), pointed to alternating trends of decline and growth over the last 50 years. He also highlighted another "major demographic trend": delaying motherhood.

Since 2010, France has witnessed an almost uninterrupted decline in births, with another 6.6% drop in 2023 compared to 2022, according to the annual report published by the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques (INSEE, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies). Do these figures signify a major demographic turning point?

Since the end of the baby boom 50 years ago, the annual number of births has fluctuated from year to year. These fluctuations have included periods of decline, like in the 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the present, alternating with periods of growth, as observed in the 2000s. At this stage, it's hard to say whether the current downturn falls within these, let's say, usual fluctuations or whether it's the first signs of a different situation to the one we've seen since the end of the baby boom, characterized by stable fertility rates.

So a drop in the number of births doesn't necessarily mean a drop in women's fertility?

To find out what we call the completed fertility of a generation of women, we have to wait until they've reached the age of 50, allowing for an assessment of the total number of children they have had in their lives. And this number has remained fairly constant to date.

Women born in 1972, who turned 50 in 2022, gave birth to two children on average. The same is true of those born in 1983, who have reached 40 and have already had 1.99 on average according to the latest statistics and should therefore also have two, or even slightly more, by the time they reach 50. In the end, they will have had as many children as women from their mothers' generation but later in life.

In fact, postponing motherhood is one of the major demographic trends of recent decades. Fifty years ago, the average age of giving birth to any child was 26.5. Women had their first child, on average, at 24. Today, the average age is 31, with the first child at 29, on average. This is a major demographic trend.

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