Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for four decades associated any form of Palestinian nationalism with "terrorism." He decided to respond to Hamas's terrorist attack on October 7 with an unprecedented escalation of violence in Gaza, which has become an end in itself, without any political perspective. This is why genuine friends of Israel, especially those who affirm their commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state, should not expect the Netanyahu government to come up with a viable vision for the "day after" in Gaza.

However, the scale of the human toll and the destruction in Gaza means that we need to start working on this now, even if no solution is entirely convincing. It is indeed toward a lesser evil that we must move, with both humility and determination in the face of the unfolding tragedy.

The four impossibilities

The first Israeli occupation of Gaza, in 1956-1957, was dedicated to the "liquidation" of the fedayeen as the current one is to that of Hamas. But Egypt regained control of the Palestinian enclave after the Israeli withdrawal, and effectively repressed fedayeen militancy for the next ten years, until the second Israeli occupation, in 1967. Today, Egypt is unlikely to assume such a role in Gaza, where future Israeli disengagement will have to be prepared and negotiated, unlike the unilateral withdrawal of 2005, which was a breeding ground for Hamas.

The impossibility of an Egyptian takeover means that we need to think about a fully Palestinian solution. Neither Israel nor its foreign backers would accept a transfer to the political wing of Hamas, even after the possible disarmament of the Al-Qassam Brigades, and even though former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, after dealing Hamas a heavy blow, agreed to the Islamists' participation in Palestinian elections in 2006.

The impossibility of a transfer to Egypt or to Hamas politicians naturally leads to a focus on the Palestinian Authority (PA). But this overlooks the fact that Mahmoud Abbas, whose term expired a dozen years ago, is discredited among his compatriots for his authoritarianism and corruption, as well as for his inability to stand up to the Israelis, in Gaza even more than in the West Bank. Only general elections could restore the legitimacy of Palestinian institutions, the last presidential elections won by Abbas was held in 2005 and the last legislative elections won by Hamas in 2006.

An inter-Palestinian agreement had been reached for the holding of general elections in 2021. The prospect was so popular that it sparked a wave of voter registration. Abbas, however, postponed the election indefinitely, betting on continued European support for the PA despite this denial of democracy. This historic error on the part of the European Union has largely contributed to the current impasse, as it would be unrealistic today to consider organizing elections in an immediate post-war context.

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