War is a gamble on the enemy's reactions. The current confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, the "party of God," is no exception to this rule. War is here and, once again, Lebanon is paying a high price. But this is not all-out war. It will only become a regional conflict if one of the protagonists is mistaken about the other's intentions.
For the time being, the only certainty is the fighting. Israeli fighters are carrying out hundreds of raids a day on the command centers and missile batteries of the Lebanese Shiite militia. Collateral damage is guaranteed: thousands of civilian victims are being treated in overcrowded hospitals. Hezbollah then retaliates, and hundreds of rockets, and one or two ground-to-ground missiles, are fired into northern Israel. Israel announces, in return, "extensive" bombardments. Tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians have fled to the north of the country.
What do the warring parties want? Hezbollah is caught up in a commitment made the day after the massacre perpetrated by Hamas in Israel on October 7, 2023, which left 1,200 people dead, and hundreds wounded and kidnapped. On the 8th, as soon as Israel launched its counter-offensive on Gaza, the Lebanese militia party declared its solidarity with Palestinians, reviving the Lebanese "front" with almost daily rocket attacks on northern Israel. Israel responded. Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, promises to stop bombing as soon as a ceasefire is reached in the territory of Gaza.
But the war in Gaza continues to this day. Hezbollah and the Israelis will settle into a small "controlled" war, on either side of the Israeli-Lebanese border. A "small war" which has nevertheless displaced 100,000 Lebanese people and 60, 000 Israelis from their homes. As the months went by, Israel hit back at Hezbollah hard and decimated a portion of its military hierarchy.
A broader banner
But Nasrallah, bound by his commitment, his credibility at stake, is maintaining the campaign on northern Israel. For the party, it's a matter of status – in Lebanon and in the rest of the Arab world. Hezbollah presents itself as the spearhead of a refusal front, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran and dedicated to armed struggle against Israel. But Hezbollah is not just a party rooted in its own community, present in parliament and government and dedicated to the interests of Lebanese Shiites. It needs a broader banner to justify its constitution as an armed militia in a Lebanon free of foreign occupation. And this is the Palestinian cause – in good faith or bad.
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