Time to stop sleeping! The victory of the anti-EU Geert Wilders in the Dutch parliamentary elections on November 22 has had a more significant impact in France than previous warning signs in Italy, Sweden, Hungary or Slovakia, when conservative or far-right national parties came to power. One after the other, two leaders of Renew Europe, the liberal centrist group that includes Macron's party in the European Parliament, sounded the alarm on French radio station France Inter.
"Sometimes the far right wins, sometimes not. There is a political battle to be fought. We have every intention of waging it at the European elections [in June 2024]," said Pascal Canfin, a Renew MEP, on Friday, November 24. He also made the point that the far right had been defeated in the Spanish parliamentary elections in July, as well as far-right conservatives in Poland in October.
On Sunday, Stéphane Séjourné, wearing both his Renew group chairman's and Renaissance party national secretary's hats, declared that he would "lead the battle for Europe" at the head of a pro-European coalition, hoping that it "will be broader than the simple presidential majority."
Like Italy, the Netherlands is a founding member of the European Union. The outgoing prime minister, the liberal Mark Rutte, was an ally of Emmanuel Macron. His nickname, "Teflon," reflected his adaptability and longevity. He had dominated Dutch politics since 2010. In July, however, he had to bow out when the coalition he led was unable to agree on a common strategy on migration policy, which had become a major issue in the country. In France, the far right is on the offensive, while a bill on immigration – the source of great tension within the majority – has still not been agreed on.
A special ballot
Long protected by its institutions and the force of the "Front républicain"[a cross-party understanding to keep the far right from power], France now appears as vulnerable as some of its European allies. The gamble taken by the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) to throw itself into the battle of the European elections as early as September has not done it any harm – on the contrary. Without even needing to campaign, Jordan Bardella, the head of the RN electoral list, is racking up points in the polls: He currently stands at around 28%, eight to nine points ahead of the presidential party Renaissance's candidate. In the 2019 elections, the two parties were neck and neck.
The European elections hold a special place in French political life. Unlike other elections, they are held under the single-round proportional representation system and are sometimes the occasion for electoral breakthroughs that are as spectacular as they are ineffective. In June 2009, the Green politician Daniel Cohn-Bendit caused a surprise by taking third place. Ten years later, Yannick Jadot repeated the feat, but failed to establish himself as the undisputed leader of the Greens and of the left in the 2022 presidential election.
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