Somewhat paradoxically, China's relentless race to produce the very goods meant to facilitate both its own transition and that of other countries is hindering its efforts to fight climate change. The world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, still heavily reliant on coal for most of its energy production, has placed itself in a category of its own, far ahead of all other nations in installing solar panels and wind turbines.
This unprecedented push has fueled China's industry: The country has emerged as the undisputed leader in the development and assembly of electric vehicles, batteries and photovoltaic panels. The Chinese government frequently touts the dual benefits of these sectors – for both the climate and the economy. President Xi Jinping has described them as "new productive forces," in contrast to more traditional industries like textiles and household appliance.
Yet these factories consume far more energy than households or the service sector, and their development is slowing China's climate progress. As a result, China missed a key climate target in 2024. On Friday, February 28, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the country's carbon intensity – the volume of emissions required to produce each unit of economic growth – declined in 2024, but only by 3.4%, falling short of the official target of 3.9%.
This setback puts China at risk of failing to meet its goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18% between 2020 and 2025, as it had pledged. It also complicates its commitment under the Paris Agreement to cut carbon intensity by 60% to 65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels – one of China's most significant climate pledges.
An engine of growth
As China's most important annual political gathering unfolds – the session of the National People's Congress, which began on Wednesday, March 5 – the country's powerful planning agency has not denied this setback. The reduction in carbon intensity "did not meet expectations," the National Development and Reform Commission acknowledged on Wednesday. It attributed this shortfall to rapid energy consumption growth and extreme weather conditions – droughts have reduced hydropower output, forcing provinces to fall back on coal, while hotter summers have increased air conditioning use.
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