After the New Hampshire Republican primary, the race for the Republican presidential nomination appears to be all but decided, even though it has only just begun. A significant majority of conservative voters clearly want to give Donald Trump another chance despite the electoral setbacks suffered under his tenure and the role he played in the violent contestation of the 2020 presidential results.
The businessman is leading the race for the Republican primary despite having always refused to be held to account. The former party of law and order has sided with the man who has most consistently trampled these principles underfoot. Far from preventing his comeback, the trials he faces have, on the contrary, accentuated a clannish, even sectarian reflex in favor of the man whom a campaign advert presents, at face value, as a "made by God."
This wilful blindness has doomed the candidacy of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to failure, despite her exemplary record. Voting intentions to date show that Haley would actually guarantee a landslide victory over incumbent president Joe Biden on November 5. For despite his 2020 pledge to be a "bridge" to a new generation of Democratic leaders, Biden has chosen instead to face the same opponent again. He is convinced that he can repeat his victory of four years ago.
Their double stubbornness is bad news for the US and far beyond, given its weight in world affairs. The main criticism leveled against Biden is his age, which explains the bouts of fatigue that his detractors present as signs of senility. Trump, who will be 78 in June, can hardly present himself as a dashing healthy alternative, especially as he too has just fuelled questions by inexplicably confusing his Republican opponent Haley with the Democratic former speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, at a campaign rally.
More uncertainty
This state of affairs and the legal deadlines that await Trump, which his lawyers are doing their utmost to postpone until after the presidential election, and a possible victory that would once again place him above the law, mean that the forthcoming presidential campaign is sure to be the most bizarre in US history.
Its outcome looks all the more uncertain as the now almost certain Republican candidate seems less inclined than ever to accept the verdict of the ballot box and an ever-growing critical mass of his voters feel they need a leader willing to break the rules in order to turn the country around.
The presidential campaign should normally provide an opportunity for a battle of ideas and a proactive, optimistic exploration of how to create a better future. There are many challenges ahead, including climate change, which former president Trump never talks about. But if things stay as they are, voters in the US will have to mourn the loss of the "American dream." In November, they will have no choice but to either reject the carnage that has befallen their country in defiance of the facts or to stand strong against the risk of democratic collapse, which Trump's rants unfortunately substantiate.