The "fog of war" is not limited to armed conflicts. The concept coming from Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz also applies to tariff offensives, especially when launched by Donald Trump. He has imposed the element most feared by governments, businesses and individuals: uncertainty. Are the taxes announced with great fanfare on April 2 definitive or merely a negotiating tool? A week later, no one is able to answer this essential question, which explains the stock market fluctuations triggered by the US president.
Unlike at the beginning of his first term, when he was still surrounded by seasoned officials, Trump seems left to his own devices and instincts, which appear to have the sole goal of defying economic wisdom. Instead of initiating a virtuous cycle, in his eyes, of relocations and reindustrialization to avoid the axe of trade barriers, the massive tax increase risks causing stagnation synonymous with recession risk, while reigniting inflation. American voters did not cast their ballots in favor of such consequences.
This tension highlights the fragilities of an administration crushed by the personality of a president who prioritizes a single criterion: blind loyalty. It explains the influence of Peter Navarro, the instigator of the ongoing trade war, who was imprisoned in 2024 for refusing to testify before a commission investigating the Capitol assault launched by Trump loyalists on January 6, 2021. The same mechanism explains the dismissal of senior officials from the National Security Council and the National Security Agency (NSA) on April 3 and 4, following the visit to the Oval Office by a well-connected far-right influencer, Laura Loomer.
Unfortunately for the United States, Congress, dominated by Republicans under the president's influence, refuses to play its essential role as a check. Conservative voices protesting these tariffs are few and far between. Yet they effectively translate into taxes imposed on American consumers in defiance of the Constitution, which entrusts this power to the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The business and financial world, which initially largely supported Trump in the hope of tax cuts and deregulation measures, is disillusioned. The disbelief in the face of aggressive protectionism, loudly proclaimed, is astounding. It took three consecutive days of stock market collapse for voices to begin rising among leading names in American banking, commerce and industry. Not numerous enough and belated, they warn of the risks of a global trade war that is undermining the foundations of the American economy.
These political and economic vacillations risk reinforcing Trump's dangerous convictions and fueling his sense of omnipotence. The US is inflicting substantial damage on itself, which will spread to the rest of the world. Only the US can stop this crisis before it spirals out of control. It is more urgent than ever to activate the alarm signals in the hope that they can still have an influence on Trump.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.