Patrick Haenni, associate researcher at the European University Institute in Florence, has been studying the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group and frequently visiting Syrian opposition territory for the past decade. He has met regularly with the movement's leadership, including its chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in his former stronghold of Idlib, then in Damascus after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024. Here, he offers his analysis of the movement's current strategy.

This victory involved numerous factions and almost 30,000 men. It was the fruit of a collective effort, but ultimately the result of a calculated gamble by the new strongman in Damascus. It was achieved in spite of everyone: Those in Idlib, who would have preferred to draw on the experience of local governance to negotiate a slow normalization with the international community; the West and the United Nations, who kept HTS on the list of terrorist organizations and preached a ceasefire; and regional states, which normalized their relations with al-Assad and feared a new military venture in a region in turmoil since the war in Gaza.

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