Post-Bashar al-Assad Syria is seeking a new equilibrium in an exceptionally complex geopolitical context. The country is partially occupied by two foreign powers and overshadowed by a third. Israel, which has occupied and colonized the Syrian Golan Heights since its conquest in 1967, has extended its influence into the buffer zone established after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The United States has special forces stationed in eastern Syria. To the north, Turkey aspires to create its own buffer zone within Syrian territory.
These three countries intend to militarily intervene in Syria as they see fit: Israel, to prevent the reconstruction of a Shiite axis extending into Lebanon; the US, to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State organization; and Turkey, to contain Syrian Kurdish forces it claims are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), according to Ankara.
These foreign interventions represent the first major obstacle to the establishment of a new order in Damascus, a prerequisite for the restoration of Syrian sovereignty. But there are others. Internal tensions are also a threat. These exist between the former jihadists who now support a national project and those who reject it, notably among foreign fighters. They're also present between the coalition of liberators, mostly Sunni, and the Kurdish and Alawite communities, the latter having been the pillar of the deposed regime. These tensions threaten to impose on Syria the same fate seen in the Arab world: revolutions and failed transitions, as exemplified by Iraq after the US ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Nevertheless, there are some unique aspects of Syria that warrant cautious optimism. The first is that the fall of the Assad dynasty, achieved on December 8 by Syrian militias, has so far not had the same effect as the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya during the Arab Spring of 2011. Gaddafi was so closely identified with Libyan institutions that they disintegrated entirely with his departure.
You have 64.08% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.