With less than one week to go before the meeting of European heads of state and government, scheduled to take place in Brussels on Thursday, December 14 and Friday, December 15, Ukraine is worried. Three major issues concerning Kyiv, which require the unanimous approval of The 27 member states, are on the agenda – the opening of accession negotiations with the European Union (EU), €50 billion in financial support and €20 billion in military aid – but there is no sign of a compromise on any of them.

Between Viktor Orban's Hungary, which promises to veto every one of these issues, and Olaf Scholz's Germany, which, mired in domestic political problems, is more orthodox than ever on budgetary matters, a general stalemate cannot be ruled out. "This summit could be a disaster," said an experienced European diplomat, who is not in the habit of sounding alarmist. "In the end, the EU always finds unity," said another source, but, before that, there will "undoubtedly be blood on the walls."

For the time being, the Europeans are working hard to avoid a fiasco that would tarnish the unity they have shown alongside Ukraine since the start of the war on February 24, 2022. On Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron had talks with Chancellor Scholz, "but nothing much came of it," said a source. On Thursday, the French president hosted a dinner with Orban, who seems to be sticking to his guns. In a letter dated December 4 to European Council president Charles Michel, Orban reiterated his request that the issues of budgetary support for Kyiv and the opening of accession negotiations be withdrawn from the Council's agenda. Otherwise, the nationalist prime minister wrote, "the obvious lack of consensus would inevitably lead to failure."

"Orban opens no space for compromise, however convoluted. It's hard to see how he could back down," said one European diplomat. Budapest regularly threatens to derail European negotiations, usually in order to obtain something in return for its support. This time, things look different. Admittedly, Orban is pressing for the return of the funds that the Commission has frozen because of his breaches of the rule of law. But Brussels is satisfied with the reforms he has made to make the judiciary more independent, and is expected to release around €10 billion to him shortly. "No one can say whether Orban is in a compromising position or whether he has embarked on a major geopolitical evolution," said a person close to the Elysée Palace.

The nationalist leader is undoubtedly feeling the wind in his sails, at a time when the far right has won parliamentary elections in the Netherlands and Slovakia, and is soaring in the polls for the European elections scheduled for June 2024. Beyond his claimed closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose hand he recently shook in Beijing, a European diplomat also sees Orban's determination as "his revenge against Volodymyr Zelensky," who harshly took him to task at a European Council meeting on March 24, 2022. "He's fed up with being called pro-Russian, when up until now he's voted for all the sanctions and done nothing against Ukraine," said another source.

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