In the eyes of Vladimir Putin, the aim of the attacks launched in recent days against Russia's southern regions is clear, "to undermine the presidential election" to be held in the country from March 15 to 17, as the Russian president explained in a televised interview on Wednesday, March 13.

In fact, for a regime that still promises its population a certain form of normality and "stability" after two years of war in Ukraine, the bombings and, even more so, the incursions of fighters from Ukraine into the regions of Kursk and Belgorod are not a good look, even if they are not capable of disrupting Vladimir Putin's anticipated reelection.

The city of Belgorod, with a population of 330,000, was the target of fresh shelling on Thursday, March 14, the heaviest since the start of the week. Two civilians traveling by car were killed in two separate incidents, and at least a dozen others were wounded. Several civilian buildings were also damaged. The previous day, the regional headquarters of the FSB, the security services, had been hit by a drone. A resident contacted by Le Monde spoke of regular explosions and a "frightening" situation.

The groups of pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters behind the attacks had issued a communiqué on Tuesday calling on civilians to evacuate border towns. These three units – the "Freedom of Russia Legion", close to former Russian MP Ilia Ponomarev, the far-right Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), and the "Siberian Battalion," which is said to have formed in the fall of 2023 – claim to be aiming at military targets, in response to the death of "dozens of ordinary innocent people (mostly women and children) (...) from shelling from Belgorod," the statement said. "In this regard, we are forced to inflict fire on military positions located in the cities of Belgorod and Kursk." "The shelling of Ukraine from the territory of Belgorod must stop," the groups added.

Russian groups rallying to Kyiv also claim to have carried out several incursions into villages in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, which had not happened since the end of 2023. The reality of the fighting in the border zone is beyond doubt: Both sides have released aerial and ground videos showing armored vehicles being destroyed on both sides.

However, the precise situation on the ground is difficult to determine, with neither side providing reliable information. Several videos released by Russian pro-Ukrainian units, showing them setting up in Russian villages or fleeing enemy units, have been authenticated. But at least one, purporting to show fighters in the village of Tyotkino, in the Kursk region, is fake. According to independent observers, the footage was filmed on the Ukrainian side of the border.

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