Senegal is experiencing a political earthquake. Shortly after the polls closed on Sunday, March 24, the first estimates predicted a large lead for Bassirou Diomaye Faye, the presidential candidate advocating a radical change of system. The question now is whether he has secured an absolute majority in the first round of voting, with some local media reporting he has earned more than 50% of the vote, or whether he will have to compete in a run-off, the date of which has not yet been set, against Amadou Ba, a former prime minister and chosen successor of the outgoing president, Macky Sall. Provisional local results are due by Tuesday evening at the latest, and the Dakar Court of Appeal has until Friday evening to announce the national figures.

But Faye's apparent lead is already a tour de force that few had predicted. The election, which took place after a last-minute postponement and a whirlwind campaign, was shrouded in uncertainty. The right-hand man of Ousmane Sonko, the leader of the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF) party that was banned in July 2023 by the government, was still unknown to the general public just a year ago. He owes his popularity to the endorsement of the party's leader, and to the repression to which the party has been subjected. The two men were released from prison just 10 days before the election. Faye had been imprisoned for "undermining state security" after denouncing the political instrumentalization of the justice system by his mentor.

The 7.3 million voters understood their relationship. "Sonko mooy Diomaye, Diomaye mooy Sonko" ("Sonko is Diomaye, Diomaye is Sonko," in Wolof) screamed his supporters in the streets of Dakar shortly after the polls closed. As soon as the first reports were published on social media, the capital suddenly awoke from its torpor. Drumming on pots and pans, dozens of people, including many young people and women, shouted their joy and danced on the roadsides.

"I feel very happy, content and satisfied because the trends seem to show that we're through the first round. And even if we go to the second round, we'll win," said Bouba, a 35-year-old architect who is part of the group of "patriotic bikers" who accompanied Faye's election caravan across the country, and who followed the results at his candidate's headquarters.

Inside, in a small room, the leaders of the Diomaye Président coalition were gathered – with the exception of the two main ones, Sonko and Faye. Among them were the newest allies, former president Abdoulaye Wade's Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), which called to vote for Faye three days before the ballot, after their candidate Karim Wade had been ruled out by the Constitutional Council. "The gap is too wide, and our lead is irreversible, given the results coming in from all over," said Nafissatou Diallo, head of communications for the PDS, confident of success in the first round. She said that the rallying of her party "facilitated victory."

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