The left was afraid of approaching the 2024 European elections divided, but that same risk is already posed for September's senatorial elections. Three parties – the Socialists, Greens and Communists – found an agreement to join forces in the upcoming vote, but excluding La France Insoumise (LFI) from the deal, even though the latter makes up the fourth faction in the left-wing NUPES coalition formed in 2022.

While the political future of the NUPES remains shrouded in uncertainty, the outcome of the Sénat elections seems much easier to predict. With the exception of the 2011-2014 period, when the Sénat had a left-wing majority for the first time in its history, the chamber has systematically been dominated by the right. But, said Bruno Cautrès, a researcher at the CEVIPOF political research center, "Things aren't looking too bad for political groups whose primary objective is to retain seats."

Could this infighting herald the end of the NUPES? "The bases are crying out for unity. We would be getting ahead of ourselves by burying the NUPES," he said. Instead, the alliance seems to be moving toward a new phase of its existence, one where the balance of power works against LFI. "It's a paradoxical unity: On the one hand, it isn't in effect everywhere. On the other hand, its fragilities reveal tensions within the left, particularly vis-à-vis La France Insoumise. Historically, the union of the left has never been smooth sailing," Cautrès explained.

Early signs indicate the elections could be a debacle for LFI, which is currently not represented in the Sénat: "La France Insoumise, like Emmanuel Macron's party, are political organizations created only a few years ago. They have fewer local roots, fewer [local] elected representatives, and the last local elections were not really favorable to them. This inevitably penalizes them in the Sénat elections," explained Cautrès.

While Socialists were delighted with the agreement for the senatorial elections, bitterness prevailed in LFI's ranks. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the movement's leading figure, fired back in a caustic blog post on July 26: "The NUPES is decomposing, and guess whose fault it is? Mélenchon, of course! (...) EELV and the PCF are each appointing a different leader for the European elections, and the PS is saying that it will do the same. Whose fault is that? Surprise, surprise: Mélenchon's, of course."

"Without informing us, and without ever inviting us, the Socialists, the Greens and the Communists were holding discussions," railed MP Paul Vannier (LFI). "The partial agreement between these three organizations is a jab at the NUPES contract, which could have made a new show of strength in September."

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