Tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports. 25% for Mexico and Canada. 10% or 20% on those from other countries. By 100% for those who aspire to live without the dollar [BRIC countries]... Donald Trump is shooting in all directions. It would seem that he sees "tariffs" not only as the "most beautiful word in the dictionary," but also as an answer to all ills. We must be wary of certainties when dealing with a man who prides himself on his unpredictability, but these announcements promise a great deal of tension and commercial disorder, in an international context that is already fairly troubled.

It is unlikely that the new president would immediately implement his threats in full. The US may have one of the lowest trade openness rates in the world, but its merchandise imports represent over 11% of its GDP. To tax them significantly would be to run the risk of reawakening a barely calmed inflation. Trump is no doubt sensitive to the political cost of such an eventuality, owing his election in large part to inflation. The fear of a stock market backlash could also make him hesitate.

His excessive appetite for tariffs, as well as the experience of his first term in office, nevertheless suggest that Trump will use this instrument. In which context remains to be seen. While some see tariffs as a tool for reducing bilateral trade deficits, or even cutting dependency links ("decoupling"), others see them above all as a negotiating lever – and Trump is going to be keen to showcase his "art of the deal," to quote the title of his famous book.

The first of these approaches would call for higher fees, the second for more limited implementation, at least initially, if not conditionally. It's hard to anticipate which of the two approaches will be favored, and with which partner. In any case, these taxes are going to provoke at least partial retaliation. The outcome is uncertain. It must be analyzed on two levels: economic and structural.

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