Vladyslav Vlasiuk tours Europe several times a year. On Wednesday, September 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's advisor on sanctions against Russia was in Berlin, after visiting The Hague and Brussels earlier in the week. Born a few months before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, he is fighting "a never-ending battle," according to Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, who took part in a debate organized by the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank in Brussels on September 18. Every time the West decides to impose sanctions on Moscow, the Russians at some point find a way around it, more or less successfully. It's the law of the game: You have to keep adjusting.
"The sanctions work," Vlasiuk nonetheless asserted, with figures to back them up showing the collapse of the Russian economy, now in recession. The Europeans have adopted 11 packages of sanctions so far. According to the Commission, their imports from Russia have fallen by 58% compared with 2021, before the outbreak of war on February 24, 2022, and their exports have fallen by 46%.
When he spoke to Le Monde on September 19, Vlasiuk showed with some relish photos of Russian cars forced to turn back at the Polish, Lithuanian and Finnish borders. Since September 8, vehicles registered in Russia have no longer been able to enter the European Union (EU). "In Russia, a lot of people consider themselves as out of the politics. Suddenly they feel there are some implications taking impact on their lives. It makes a huge cultural impact," he said.
Although Vlasiuk is confident that "the EU will adopt a new sanctions package before the end of the year," he knows it will be difficult. On energy, he argues that it's time for the EU to do without Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). "Certain member states, including Spain, are buying more and more of it [from Russia]," he claimed, while "there's plenty of LNG all over the world." The EU-27 member states have imposed an embargo on Russian coal and oil. On gas, they preferred to abstain – all the more so as the Kremlin has largely cut them off – and give themselves time to find other solutions.
Kyiv is also campaigning for a lowering of the ceiling price set by the Europeans for oil. It was designed to prohibit Western companies from providing services (freight, insurance, etc.) above $60 a barrel (€56), enabling Russian black gold to be transported by sea to countries such as China and India, which have not opted to go without it. According to Benjamin Hilgenstock of the Kyiv School of Economics, "Russian oil revenues are on the rise again. Among other things, he explained, "to get around the oil price ceiling, some traders and brokers are issuing false certificates."
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