It is a "gift from heaven" for the Kremlin, according to the expression used repeatedly by Western diplomats and outside observers. Israel's reprisals in the Gaza Strip, in response to the terrorist attack led by Hamas on October 7, are a godsend for Russia in its war against Ukraine and its confrontation with "the collective West," as Moscow puts it.

In the wake of these attacks, Russian media barely concealed their satisfaction, despite the risk of a general conflagration in the Middle East, including Syria. Beyond a certain amount of wishful thinking – the idea that the United States would be unable to supply both Kyiv and Tel Aviv with weapons – there is a reality: The resurgence of conflict in the Middle East offers a welcome diversion for Moscow and weakens the West's position on Ukraine. "The situation may work in Russia's favor," wrote the popular daily newspaper Moskovskij Komsomolets back on October 9.

What's at stake goes beyond the mere relegation of the Ukrainian issue in the TV news hierarchy. It concerns the efforts made by the West since February 2022 to isolate Russia and rally countries considered to belong to the Global South to their cause. These efforts, which had only been relatively successful, are now being swept aside, both in public opinion and among a number of governments in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America. Isolation threatens the Western bloc.

The brutality of Israel's retaliation and the support it enjoys in Western countries weaken two pillars of Western discourse on Ukraine: Russia's failure to respect international law and the crimes committed by its army. Comparisons were soon drawn between the Russian and Israeli occupations, which the West refuses to treat in the same way. Similarly, the differentiated treatment of possible war crimes revives the discourse of "double standards" and Western "hypocrisy" – a long-standing and recurrent position with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. In other words, in this prevailing heated climate, it's hard to avoid comparisons between the Russian bombing of Ukraine's energy infrastructure and Israel's decision to cut off electricity to Gaza.

"It's a godsend for [Vladimir] Putin," said a European diplomat. Tatiana Kastueva-Jean, director of the Russia/Eurasia Center of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), added: "All the discourse and the efforts of the West have been undermined. It's a godsend for Moscow, which hopes to break out of its isolation on the international stage by virtue of the opening of this new front in the Middle East."

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