Whenever Roberta Metsola faces a decisive moment, she resorts to making the sign of the cross. On Tuesday, July 16, when the MEPs in Strasbourg vote on whether to reappoint her as president of the European Parliament, the 45-year-old Maltese politician will no doubt cross herself once again. Even if she knows that the outcome of the vote is likely to be favorable to her.

Following the European elections on June 9, the various groups in the assembly negotiated the distribution of key posts, including the presidency of the Parliament and vice-presidencies. Coming from the Christian Democrat ranks of the European People's Party (EPP), which once again emerged as the leading group, Metsola is a legitimate candidate. Especially since her track record at the head of the assembly since January 2022, is one of finding consensus.

Metsola therefore looks set to be elected for another two and a half years, after which the Social Democrats (S&D), who came second, should place one of their own. The EPP, buoyed by its results, did initially try to challenge this traditional right/left alternation, but eventually gave up.

The formations that make up the majority in the assembly (the EPP, the S&D and the Renew liberals) are expected to cast their votes in favor of Metsola. She should also pick up votes from the Greens, the radical left (The Left) and the radical right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), who have also been promised positions of influence in this grand bargain. The Maltese knows how to reward those who support her. In January 2022, she was elected with the votes of the EPP, S&D, Renew and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), who won a vice-presidential post at the expense of the Greens.

On the far right, two other groups – Patriots for Europe, which includes Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz, and Europe of Sovereign Nations, created by Germany's AfD – are not expected to support Metsola's re-election. As they are subject to the cordon sanitaire, which prevents them from holding positions of responsibility within the European Parliament, they have no reason to do so.

When she first stood for the presidency of the assembly, Metsola had to explain her stance against abortion, which is still banned in her country. Whether on the rule of law, immigration or the rights of LGBT communities, Metsola has always defended progressive positions. But this mother of four married to a Finn, who claims to be a feminist, is not always at the forefront of the fight for women's rights. In September 2021, as a simple MEP, she abstained from voting on a non-binding parliamentary resolution calling for the criminalization of violence against women. Metsola has always maintained that she would put the position of the European Parliament ahead of her personal convictions, including on the right to abortion, to which the majority of MEPs are committed, regardless of their lack of authority in the matter.

You have 30.13% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.