Is an Israeli military operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah coming dangerously close to taking shape through the sheer repetition of the threat? Escalation on both sides of the border between the two countries has recently taken on two different forms. On Hezbollah's side, there has been an increase in aggressiveness, marked by intensified attacks in the direction of Israeli territory. Fires started by incoming rockets, which consumed 1,000 hectares of land at the beginning of the week in the vicinity of Kiryat Shmona, a large town in northeast Israel close to the Lebanese border, have made an impression, as has the increase in the number of shots fired from Lebanon.
On the Israeli side, the escalation is more clearly verbal but no less threatening. Near-daily visits by political, military, and administrative leaders to the border region have increased tensions.
On Wednesday, June 5, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in Kiryat Shmona: "We are prepared for very intense action in the North [in order to confront Hezbollah]. One way or another, we will restore security to the north." The wording is a reminder that a large military presence has been deployed in the region, but it also seems to mean that the time has come to choose between a negotiated solution with Hezbollah or a military operation in Lebanon. On Tuesday, Israel's Chief of the General Staff General Herzi Halevi, also announced in Kiryat Shmona: "We are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made."
In May, Hezbollah significantly stepped up the frequency and scale of its attacks against northern Israel: there were 325 attacks that month, a level not seen since October 2023. Recently, it has used increasingly precise and sophisticated means: armed drones are now being used in a more systematic way, and Burkan short-range missiles have targeted military bases and anti-aircraft systems up to 50 kilometers into Israeli territory. The precision of its strikes has also improved significantly. This qualitative leap, which suggests enhanced intelligence capabilities, has added to the tension.
Hezbollah is also using ground-to-air missiles to shoot down Israeli drones in Lebanese airspace. For the first time, on the evening of Thursday, June 6, it also used air defense missiles against Israeli aircraft. This was intended to demonstrate Hezbollah's conventional deterrence capabilities – a way of responding to the verbal escalation on the Israeli side and the looming threat of a military operation.
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