Rishi Sunak on Wednesday, May 22, called a general election but polls have consistently made grim reading for the UK prime minister, predicting a wipeout for his ruling Conservatives.
The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll has the Conservatives at 20% and Labour at 47%, while an average of major polls collated by The Economist gives Labour a 23-point lead.
Just as concerning for the Tories is the durability of the opposition's poll lead, which has been around 20 points since Liz Truss's disastrous and short-lived term as prime minister in late 2022. The Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010, have not come out ahead of Labour in the average of polls since 2021.
Polling expert John Curtice predicted that if the trend was repeated on the July 4 election day, the Conservatives could win even fewer seats than in their 1997 wipeout by Labour under Tony Blair. Then, they ended up with just 165 seats out of 650.
An Electoral Calculus poll of polls calculated in April predicted that the Tories would win just 85 seats this time round, while Labour would win 472 and a 294-seat majority. It is not just the headline figures that spell trouble for the Tories, but also polling on the underlying issues and the personal popularity of Sunak.
Only 20% have a positive impression of the prime minister, compared with 71% who have a negative view of him, according to YouGov's most recent polling – his joint-worst score ever. More than half of all voters see him as incompetent, untrustworthy, weak, dislikeable and indecisive, according to the same poll.
Labour leader Keir Starmer is significantly more popular, but is still seen negatively by most voters, with a net score of -17. The opposition also scores more highly on the three main issues identified by voters: the economy, health and immigration.
The public favour Labour on the economy by a margin of 27% to 20%, on immigration by 21% to 15% and on health by 41% to 10%, according to YouGov. All of which leaves Labour with a "99% chance" of winning the election, Curtice said in March.