If you're already feeling downcast this fall by the continuing wars in Europe and the Middle East, whatever you do, avoid googling 538 (or FiveThirtyEight) a site that charts daily the latest polls in the ongoing US presidential battle. Indeed, the day-by-day reality of 538's figures shows that one in two American voters are planning to cast their ballot for Donald Trump. It will be a 50-50, half-and-half, neck-and-neck race, which – barring any surprises in the last few days of the elections that might put more distance between the contenders – will conclude at the end of Tuesday, November 5, or in the following days, with a photo showing who won. The Republican Donald Trump, or his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. There are two provisional conclusions to be drawn from such a close duel.

The first is that, despite her brilliant convention performance in late August that bridged the gap between Trump and President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race, Harris hasn't taken off. Nor has she profited from any post-convention upswing. The outgoing vice president has certainly rallied and united the Democratic camp – no mean feat – but she hasn't established herself as a force capable of biting into the Republican electorate.

This electorate remains overwhelmingly committed to Trump. It's a monolithic block loyal to its aging hero, whatever he may say or do. And its visceral attachment – the second conclusion to be drawn from the polls – is astonishing, to say the least. There's an element of mystery in the trust placed in a convicted felon, who makes radical and increasingly erratic remarks, as opposed to a former California attorney general with a coherent and cautiously centrist discourse.

Visceral loathing of the elites

Keeping to the more rational elements of the Trump vote, one could cite the orderly or disorderly immigration-inflation pairing. Americans were hard hit by rising housing, food and gas prices during the Biden presidency, and they have witnessed a great wave of migration sweep over the Mexican border – all the more worrying as it has occurred against a backdrop of accelerating demographic change in the country's population.

But inflation has been brought down to 2.5% without causing a recession and growth in 2024 should be 2.8% – enough to make the Europeans green with envy. Committed public investment will ensure the country's strength in the years ahead. Reindustrialization is well under way. Wages are rising. Full employment is not far off, with an unemployment rate of 4%. And there are no American soldiers fighting in distant lands.

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