For Vladimir Putin, in the words of a long-serving European ambassador to Moscow, "the truth is just one option." Today, the Russian president's range of options is expanding with each of Donald Trump's statements and actions. But time is a factor for both leaders. Eager for an early victory in his second term, the American president wants to "stop the massacre" in Ukraine and secure a ceasefire in what he called a "ridiculous war." With only four years in office, he can't wait for long, slow negotiations for an agreement to guarantee lasting peace. On the other hand, the head of the Kremlin, who has ruled Russia for a quarter of a century and could remain in power until 2036, wants peace, but on his terms. He could agree to a rushed ceasefire, knowing that without a concrete long-term plan, he can resume his offensive at any time.

While Trump's proposals remain unclear, the Kremlin remains adamant about its demands: Ukraine's surrender, its renunciation of NATO membership and Russian control of the occupied Ukrainian territories. As soon as the real negotiations begin, the president of the United States risks being presented with a fait accompli by the Kremlin. Moscow has escalated its demands, insisting that Ukraine's exclusion from NATO is not enough; it now wants the alliance to revoke its commitment to Kyiv’s eventual membership.

Washington won't be able to give in on everything, especially Moscow's ultimate goal: a friendly Ukraine with new pro-Kremlin leaders in Kyiv. But Putin won't let himself be diverted from his long-term ambition. Since coming to power in 1999, he has repeatedly emphasized his desire to place a strong Russia at the heart of the world – a "great power for thousands of years, a country-civilization," as he warned in his landmark speech of September 30, 2022, when he celebrated the annexation of Ukraine's Russian occupied regions.

Two co-owners

Putin, who questions his neighbor's very existence as a country, frequently distorts reality – framing Russia as merely defending itself when it is attacked. Trump has already handed Russia a major victory by turning the tide of history himself. In Washington, Volodymyr Zelensky is now accused of having "started the war" and behaving like a "dictator" – a term that even Putin has never dared use to describe the Ukrainian president but which he has no doubt whispered to Trump by insisting on Zelensky's "illegitimacy."

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