One spoke, the other did not. The fall of the Syrian regime does not have the same flavor in Ankara as it does in Moscow. As much as it is a victory for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sees his regional influence strengthened, it appears to be a major setback for his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, threatened with losing his diplomatic influence in the region and his military bases in Syria. If confirmed, the loss of the latter, notably Tartus, Russia's only window on the Mediterranean, could deal a blow to the Kremlin's ambition to project its power in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and Africa. "Russia's military presence in the Middle East is hanging by a thread," warned Russian military blogger "Rybar", close to the Ministry of Defense and whose Telegram channel is subscribed to by over 1.3 million people, on December 9.

Wrapped in silence, Putin was careful not to comment on the fall of Bashar al-Assad, to whom he offered asylum in Moscow on December 8, without granting him the slightest audience. Preoccupied by his war in Ukraine, unable to provide the Syrian regime with the necessary arms and troops, Putin let go of his oldest ally in the Middle East. "All available forces were focused exclusively on Ukraine. As a result, Bashar al-Assad became a secondary client of Putin’s," explained Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar in his Substack blog on Wednesday, December 11.

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