For 30 years, the relationship between Prime Minister François Bayrou and the Parti Socialiste (PS, left) has been a series of frustrations and missed opportunities, punctuated by awkward blunders. The most recent, courtesy of Bayrou, took place on August 14. That day, the prime minister picked up the phone to call former president François Hollande and wish him a happy birthday – unfortunately, he was two days late. Hollande, now an MP, did not hold it against him and seized the opportunity to raise the pressing issue of the budget, which was set to dominate the upcoming parliamentary session and had gotten the Socialists up in arms. "We should have a discussion soon. We can talk about it right now, if you want," said Hollande. Bayrou cut the discussion short, pushing the conversation back to the fall.

In the end, no budget negotiation ever took place. Unwilling to compromise on his deficit-reduction plan, or its target of €44 billion in budget cuts, Bayrou decided to put the matter to a vote of confidence, to be held in Parliament on Monday, September 8. The Socialists, much like MPs from the Green, Communist, La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) and far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parties, are not expected to back the prime minister, effectively dooming his government.

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