It is uncertain whether Portugal's legislative elections on Sunday, May 18 – the third in three years – will bring more stability to the government of the incumbent conservative prime minister, Luis Montenegro. His center-right coalition, the Democratic Alliance (AD), came out on top and was even strengthened, but remains a minority, winning 31.2% of the vote (up three points from 2024) and 86 MPs (+6) out of the 230 that make up Parliament. This positions Montenegro to again be head of the government, leading a relative majority.

Just a year after the March 2024 legislative elections, which saw the center right's victory following eight years of Socialist governance, the growth of the far-right party Chega ("Enough") might make the Portuguese Parliament more difficult to navigate, as Montenegro pledged not to rely on the far right to govern, a promise he kept during the last legislature. With 58 seats (22.6% of the vote, +8 points), Chega obtained as many MPs as the Socialist Party. It is even expected to surpass it once overseas votes are counted. This is where the far right led in 2024, securing two of the four seats at stake.

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