One crisis can hide another. Behind the diplomatic and military agitation surrounding the coup d'état in Niamey lies a major issue for Europeans: the question of sub-Saharan migration. Niger occupies a strategic position on the continent's migration routes, as a privileged transit corridor to Libya, and as a launch pad – alongside Tunisia – to Italy. There is already concern in Rome.

Since the putsch that toppled Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, Italy's leaders have been warning against the temptation to carry out military intervention in Niamey, which in their eyes threatens to deepen the chaos in the Sahel. Referring to the rebound in the number of migrants arriving on the Italian peninsula via the Mediterranean (87,000 in the first seven months of 2023, more than double the number for the same period in 2022), Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani warned in the daily La Stampa on Monday, August 7: "The problem of the new wave of immigrants is already a reality. With every day that passes, if no agreement is reached, the situation risks getting worse. If war breaks out in Niger, it will be a catastrophe."

Niger firmly took its place in the European Union's migration and asylum policy in the aftermath of a summit in Valletta, Malta, in November 2015, which was dominated by the unprecedented migration crisis facing Europe at the time. Under pressure from Brussels, the Niamey authorities generally played along, implementing a whole series of measures aimed at curbing access to its northern border with Libya. Since 2017, they have been targeting the city of Agadez, the "capital" of Berber-ethnic Tuareg country, which until then had served as a major crossroads for migrants preparing to cross the Sahara.

To this end, the great architect of the containment plan, Niger's then minister of the interior – a certain Mohamed Bazoum – decided to apply, with the utmost severity, a hitherto laxly respected 2015 law repressing the illicit trafficking of migrants. Nationals from Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Nigeria were suddenly subjected to numerous administrative roadblocks – most often in contradiction with the rules of free movement laid down within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) – in their attempts to reach Agadez by bus from Niamey.

Above all, the government is cracking down on smuggling networks, at the risk of depleting resources in the north of the country. The Agadez oasis, through which nearly 333,000 migrants transited in 2016 on their way to Algeria and Libya, had long thrived on a vibrant migratory economy. As the ultimate gateway to the desert, where convoys of 4x4s and trucks are used for the Saharan odyssey, the town was teeming with "migration service" providers – criminalized overnight – who guided, housed, fed, equipped and transported migrants. In the 2010s, the blossoming of these activities had opportunely offset the collapse of tourism, a victim of the Tuareg rebellions (1990-1997 and 2007-2009), as well as the ups and downs of regional mining (uranium, gold). By 2017, Agadez had become a shadow of its former self. Some local leaders openly complained that Europe had succeeded in "putting its southern border in Agadez."

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