Even before the resignation of the very short-lived Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Monday, October 6, political instability had already cost the French economy around 0.3% of growth in 2025. The new political crisis that has just emerged will only worsen this negative trend: "Given the events of the past few hours, we should expect the situation to get worse," said Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo BHF, an asset management firm and private bank.

According to Banque de France forecasts, France is expected to see growth of about 0.7% this year. "Without the political crisis, it would likely have been closer to 1%," said Stéphane Colliac, an economist at BNP Paribas. Maxime Darmet, his counterpart at Allianz Trade, reached exactly the same conclusion, putting the loss of growth at 0.3 percentage points.

According to these experts, this significant economic slowdown stems from extreme caution among households and businesses. Fearing tax increases or cuts in public support, the former hesitate to spend while the latter put off investing.

The monthly household confidence survey conducted by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) is revealing in that regard. Over the long term, its average is 100; it currently stands at 87. While the level was even lower in 2022 and 2023 during the major surge in inflation – which caused a sharp loss in purchasing power – one would have to go back to the eurozone crisis around 2014 to find it this low.

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