Exemplary in its support for Ukraine from the outset of Russian aggression on February 24, 2022, the Polish government seems to be heading in a new direction. The dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv over the export of Ukrainian grain to the European Union, which Poland considers detrimental to its own producers, has taken on proportions that run counter to Europe's solidarity with war-torn Ukraine.
On September 15, the European Commission, as planned, lifted the temporary restrictions it had imposed on Ukrainian grain exports to five countries – Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria – to relieve pressure on prices. Poland, followed by Hungary and Slovakia, decided to override the Commission's decision and maintain its import ban, in defiance of Single Market rules.
The Ukrainian government reacted by announcing an appeal to the World Trade Organization. At the UN on Tuesday, September 19, President Volodymyr Zelensky provocatively criticized "certain" countries for "playing solidarity politics" while playing into Russia's hands. The Polish government urgently summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to protest.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki then announced that Warsaw would no longer deliver arms to Ukraine. Polish President Andrzej Duda, usually quick to emphasize his friendship with Zelensky, added fuel to the fire by comparing Ukraine to "someone who is drowning and clinging to anything he can find". He added: "A drowning person is extremely dangerous, he can drag you down and drown the person trying to save him."
There is an easy explanation for Poland's new stance: the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 15. Law and Justice (PiS), the conservative-nationalist party in power since 2015, is hoping to secure a third term but faces uncertainty in the polls. The rural vote, particularly that of farmers, is therefore crucial for PiS. Moreover, the population's remarkable support for Ukrainian refugees – more than 1 million are still present in Poland – is beginning to fade. Instead of fighting it, the government plans to capitalize on this weariness.
The election rhetoric has reached an undignified level of virulence, with the PiS orchestrating an anti-German campaign against the leader of the opposition, former prime minister Donald Tusk, who is accused of being in the pay of Berlin. To encourage its electorate to vote, the government has added to the legislative ballot a referendum on the relocation of asylum seekers recommended by Brussels, a measure against which the PiS is actively campaigning, denouncing the "invasion" of Europe by waves of migrants.
Such campaigning is contemptible in itself. But the fact that it has led to a U-turn in policy in support of Ukraine, when Poland had until now prided itself on being its closest ally and the most enthusiastic advocate for its EU membership, is dangerous. The grain dispute could have been settled differently, as in the case of Romania and Bulgaria, who are helping Ukraine to export its wheat. It's not Ukraine that's drowning, it's Poland.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.