"What's it costing you, lad? It's only four years. So for those four years, try, close your eyes, grit your teeth if you can't do otherwise, and vote for [the party] Law and Justice [PiS]." This statement by Beata Szydlo, the former – and still very popular – prime minister (2015-2017) of the very conservative party PiS at an election meeting on October 12 testifies to the feverishness that has gripped the party in the final stretch of the campaign for the parliamentary elections on Sunday, October 15. Donald Tusk, the former prime minister and leader of the first opposition party, smiling, said he was "surprised by her sincerity".
The last opinion polls before the electoral truce, which began at midnight on Friday 13, were a source of hope for the three Democratic opposition parties, who could form a coalition. The last two polls credit the PiS with 31% to 34.9% of the vote; Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) with 26% to 27%; the Third Way, made up of the Polish People's Party (PSL) and Poland 2050, a party led by TV personality Szymon Holownia, with 10% to 12%, the Left (Lewica) with 10% to 11%, and the far-right libertarian Confederation (Konfederacja) with 8% to 10%. In all these scenarios, a coalition of KO, Third Way and the Left would be able to reach the absolute majority of 231 seats in the Sejm, the lower house of parliament. Despite this positive momentum, the battle promises to be extremely close and could come down to a few thousand votes.
If there's one constant in the polls over the past six months, it's that none of them give the Law and Justice Party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski the ability to govern on its own. After a major surge by the extreme right in the spring, the question of a coalition with Confederation was raised – although denied by its representatives.
On the opposition side, all eyes will be on the Third Way's score and its ability to cross the 8% electoral threshold required for coalitions. Given the Polish electoral system, a failure would return the points and seats obtained to the leading party, a "winner's bonus" that could guarantee a majority for the PiS.
And so ends the longest and most brutal election campaign in Poland's recent history. It has suffered from a major paradox: In their communication strategies, the campaign teams have only very marginally addressed what is really at stake in these elections. They've skirted around the issue of keeping the rule of law and a thorough assessment of eight years of PiS in government.
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