Having emerged exhausted from the Soviet bloc 35 years ago, and having been admitted to the European Union 20 years ago after proving its willingness to reform, Poland finds itself, almost in spite of itself, on the way to becoming a major European player, spurred on by the acceleration of an explosive geopolitical context.

Two key trends illustrate the rise of Central Europe's largest country. Firstly, its economic growth, which, despite the setback caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, has consistently placed it above the European average for the past 20 years. Having come a long way, the Poles' standard of living is on an inflexible trajectory: The ratio of GDP per capita in Poland to average GDP per European, in purchasing power parity, has risen from 51% in 2004 to 79% in 2022.

The other figure in this "Polish moment" is the increase in defense spending. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Poland has embarked on a monumental effort to strengthen its security. The target of 4.2% of its GDP in 2024 is set to rise to 4.7% in 2025. This figure, which is well above the minimum of 2% set by NATO in 2014, impresses other Europeans, who see "Europe's leading army" emerging on their eastern flank.

What does Poland, a country with a troubled history that has so often sought revenge, want? "Nobody here talks about Europe's leading army. I only hear it at international conferences," said Katarzyna Pisarska, who heads the Warsaw Security Forum. If that were really the goal, she said, "we'd have to launch a major effort on recruitment and conscription." It would also require a profound reform of the defense industry: "Nobody has the stomach or the vision to do it." In 2024, Poles, she said, are dreaming more of major infrastructure and clean energy projects, "to put one's pride in a powerful army – which is, incidentally, a necessity – is a stance of the past."

Foreign Affairs Minister Radoslaw Sikorski put forward a very rational explanation for the increase in the defense budget, with arguments that go straight to the heart of his compatriots – and his voters. "We take our security seriously. The Russians have proved that, when they threaten someone, they carry out the threat. They threatened Georgia, they invaded. They threatened Ukraine, they invaded. Now they're threatening Latvia and Poland. We'll never be a Russian colony again," he said.

Initiated by the previous government of the conservative nationalist party Law and Justice (PiS), the military equipment acquisition program, considered by some to be immense, has been maintained by the center-right government led by Donald Tusk and is the subject of a broad political consensus. The progressive increase in the defense budget has been enshrined in law since 2001.

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