"The stone age came to an end, not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil." Ahmed Zaki Yamani, a former Saudi oil minister famous for his role in the oil shocks of the 1970s, was right. Delivered in September 2000, on the 40th anniversary of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), these words contradicted the prevailing thinking at the time, which focused on the limits of crude extraction rather than on the hypothesis of a slowdown in global consumption. Some 23 years later, peak oil is finally in sight, not because of a supply shortage but because demand is reaching a ceiling.
In its upcoming annual report, to be published in October, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is due to announce that, for the first time, oil, natural gas, and coal consumption is set to reach its absolute maximum before 2030. If this inflection point is a crucial moment in the energy transition, it can be summed up in four words: too little, too late.
In an opinion piece published in the Financial Times earlier this month, IEA executive director Fatih Birol wrote that peak fossil fuel demand "will happen this decade." Until now, the scenario was that consumption would stabilize over the next decade. This represents a radical revision of the energy transition timeframe as fossil fuel consumption is behind most of the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change.
As Yamani predicted, it is not resource depletion that is causing this turning point but technology, which he once described as a "real enemy for OPEC." The IEA believes that the peak of fossil fuels will come sooner than expected, primarily because of the development of renewable energies. Governments and companies are investing massively in many parts of the world to switch to a low-carbon economy. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States, the Green Pact in the European Union, and environmental planning in China are all incentives to cut reliance on oil.
The IEA forecasts that electric vehicles will account for 35% of global sales by 2030, compared with less than 25% in an earlier projection. This would reduce oil consumption by 5 million barrels per day.
Another decarbonization driver is China's structural transformation, which is moving from a model centered on heavy industry to an economy more focused on services and less energy-intensive production. The global energy crisis and Russia's war in Ukraine have made Europe aware of its vulnerability to fossil fuels, encouraging moderation and amplifying efforts.
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