The results came in more than 24 hours late, without explanation, fuelling suspicions of fraud. Defying all predictions and despite the combined efforts of the army and his opponents to disqualify him, Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), came out on top in the February 8 parliamentary elections in Pakistan, with a lead of almost 20 seats (out of 336) over its closest rival, Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League. This unexpected and undoubtedly underestimated result reflects the immense popularity of the former prime minister, who was prevented from competing and has been incarcerated since August 5, 2023, in Rawalpindi's Adiala Jail, but is adored by a large part of the population, particularly young people, who make up almost half of the electorate.
In recent months, the PTI and its leader have remained combative, using the resonance of social media to bypass censorship and obstruction. The party succeeded in fielding candidates in every constituency. On Saturday morning, its teams broadcast a video generated by artificial intelligence in which Imran Khan salutes the victory of his supporters.
The judicial and police actions against the former world cricket champion had the opposite effect to what was expected, galvanizing his supporters. Voters lined up at polling stations despite a climate of fear fanned by several attacks on the eve of the vote. On election day, the authorities cut phone networks, preventing citizens from locating their polling stations.
The PTI's electoral victory does not mean a return to power, as the winning party must find allies to govern. It has none. Above all, the PTI, prevented from competing as a party and obliged to present independent candidates, will not benefit from the quotas of seats allocated to minorities, including 60 for women. Its opponents will share the spoils.
Sharif, despite being edged out by his arch-enemy, is preparing for a fourth term in office. He claimed victory even before counting was complete. The former prime minister, who returned in October after five years in exile in London, remains the military's favorite. But he has started off on the wrong foot: his score is tantamount to a disavowal. Unlike the PTI, he mobilized considerable resources for his campaign, arriving and leaving his rallies by helicopter. But his campaign was lackluster and the lion of Punjab has lost his pugnacity. The Pakistani people outright rejected the army's candidate, whose reputation was damaged.
Sharif had hoped to govern the country with his party alone, so as to have free rein for five years. However, he will be forced into a coalition and many compromises. His main partner will be the rival clan of Bilawal Bhutto, the son of Benazir, the former prime minister assassinated in 2007. Sharif has tasked his brother, former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, with negotiating with the various parties to form an alliance. It is likely to resemble the one that ruled the country for the past year. No doubt he will also try to "buy" candidates from the PTI to widen his coalition and give the semblance of a united government.
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