A wave of horror once again spread across Lebanon on Wednesday, September 18. Tension suddenly escalated shortly after 5 pm in the southern suburbs of Beirut when explosions rang out in the Hezbollah stronghold. The previous day, a simultaneous explosion of pagers killed 12 and injured almost 3,000 people, most of them Shiite party fighters. This time, walkie-talkies exploded across the country, killing 20 (according to Hezbollah) and injuring 450, as estimated by the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
Panic gripped the southern suburbs. Hezbollah members threw their telephones on the ground, worried that all the Shiite group's communications equipment had been booby-trapped. Residents anxiously scanned the skies, where Israeli surveillance drones had been spotted. The series of attacks, blamed on Israel and denounced as "indiscriminate and illegal" under international law by the NGO Human Rights Watch, succeeded in instilling fear and paranoia among the population.
Tactical success for Israel
Within the ranks of Hezbollah, the question is whether this operation is a prelude to an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, or simply a warning to the party to cease its attacks on Israel. In October 2023, shortly after the Hamas attack on the Hebrew state, the Shiite party began firing rockets into northern Israel to loosen the grip on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and capitalize on the image of resistance in the Arab world. As hopes for a negotiated solution in the Gaza Strip and on the Lebanese border dwindle, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced on Wednesday "a new phase in the war," this time in northern Israel.
"By demonstrating its intelligence superiority, Israel has once again succeeded in humiliating Hezbollah and, indirectly, Iran," said Ali Alfoneh, a researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The series of attacks has disorganized Hezbollah's ranks, dealt a blow to the morale of its supporters and, for the near future, reduced its ability to fight back. Even before preparing its retaliation, the Party of God will have to identify security loopholes and informers and adapt its security protocols. "These formations learn from their mistakes and will be pushed toward technological autonomy to reduce the risk of infiltration," said Alfoneh.
This is a tactical success for Israel, but not yet a strategic victory. By gradually emancipating itself from the principle of graduated response, which has long tacitly regulated its confrontation with the Shiite party, and by choosing to strike major blows at the movement's command structure and military infrastructure, Israel has gained an advantage. The front of support for Hamas is closing on Hezbollah and the axis of resistance like a trap. Hezbollah and its allies' reluctance to launch an open war against the Hebrew state has seen their power of dissuasion eroded over the months.
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