"I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months." This statement by Elon Musk dates back to November 26, 2022, shortly after his takeover of the social media platform. Twenty months later, the multi-billionaire lost his bet.

True, the platform, renamed "X" on July 23, 2023, has gained monthly active users: They now number 570 million, according to figures released in July by the company, an increase of 6% compared to last year. But the number of people logging on every day, meanwhile, is stagnating, at around 250 million – the same figure as when the platform was acquired.

While Musk's thunderous arrival may have won over new users, it has also driven others away in successive waves. At the time of the takeover, some internet users, scalded by the personality of the Tesla and SpaceX boss, preferred to leave the social media platform. This happened in the weeks and months that followed, when Musk made one controversial decision after another: shrinking the moderation team, reinstating Donald Trump, charging the blue badges that, until then, assured an account's authenticity. And after October 7 and the Hamas attack on Israel, when the atmosphere became suffocating on X. Among the deserters were celebrities like Elton John, Jim Carrey, Whoopi Goldberg and Trent Reznor.

Mastodon, a mini-success

Leaving Twitter, but to go where? "Join me on Mastodon," some accounts proclaimed as soon as Musk took over, urging their subscribers to follow them on this microblogging service, which was Twitter's main competitor at the time. While it may resemble Twitter at first glance (messages limited to 500 characters and similar functionalities), its philosophy is different. Mastodon, launched in 2016, is "open source" – in other words, anyone can access its source code – and decentralized – meaning everyone can create their own server, called an "instance," with their own rules.

Musk's takeover of Twitter had greatly benefited Mastodon. Within a month, the number of registered users had risen from 3.6 to 5.4 million. It now stands at 8.7 million. It's a fine progression, but it has to be said that these new subscribers don't necessarily use the social media network. While the Musk earthquake enabled Mastodon to surpass one million monthly active users for the first time, today only 853,000 log on at least once a month. This is twice as many as in October 2022, but nothing like the 570 million monthly active users claimed by X.

Niche social media

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