After one year of war in Gaza, not only is there no end in sight, but new fronts have opened up. A regional conflagration – Joe Biden's fear since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 – is a real possibility. Three simultaneous wars are taking shape in the region, led by Israel – in Gaza, Lebanon and against Iran – and no one seems in a position to force Benjamin Netanyahu into restraint. As he visited a base of the army's 36th division near the Lebanese border on October 6, the Israeli prime minister told commanders: "You are the generation of victory." It's an extraordinary turnaround, one year after the historic collapse of Israel's security apparatus, which had been incapable of preventing and then responding to a major terrorist attack on its soil.
As Israel contemplates retaliating to Tehran's latest missile strikes, Western and Arab capitals fear further escalation. Consistently over the past year, Netanyahu and the war cabinet have ignored the advice, if not the red lines, drawn by their protector, the United States, which has provided an endless stock of arms and munitions, a diplomatic umbrella at the United Nations and an invaluable contribution to Israeli security thanks to a massive naval and air deployment in the eastern Mediterranean.
"Since October 7, Westerners have been faced with four seemingly contradictory injunctions: to support Israel's right to exist; its right to defend itself; to call for respect of international humanitarian law; and to ensure a political solution to move towards a Palestinian state," explained Nicole Gnesotto, geopolitics expert and vice-president of the Jacques Delors Institute
. "After the shock and obvious condemnation of the massacres committed by Hamas, many people had a rather naïve appreciation of what it meant to insist on Israel's right to defend itself," observed a diplomat based in the region. "It was very difficult to make a wounded country see reason, anxious to take revenge after such a humiliation."
From day one, the Biden administration has sided with Israel, militarily, politically and morally. The US president's visit to a grieving and bewildered country on October 18, 2023, was full of empathy. "Justice must be done," Biden said in Tel Aviv. "But I caution this: While you feel that rage, don't be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. While we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes." A whispered warning that was quickly forgotten.
Biden's personal loyalty to Israel's security has ensnared him into a trap. The Pentagon set up an air bridge for arms deliveries. While Israel feverishly prepared for a ground operation in Gaza, the US urged it to mature its plans and did its utmost to prevent a regional war. A clear message was sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq and, finally, to Iran, in the form of a spectacular deployment of naval air forces in the eastern Mediterranean.
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