It's a slow, gradual, but increasingly visible movement. Two years after the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the military reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank is now a more tangible reality, from the Arctic latitudes of Finland to the Black Sea shores in Bulgaria.

The height of the Cold War years, when several hundred thousand soldiers, particularly Americans, were stationed on Europe's eastern borders, facing Soviet forces, is still a long way off. More than 350,000 American troops were deployed in Europe at that time, compared with 100,000 today. However, troop reinforcements, the construction of military bases and training grounds and the positioning of anti-aircraft defense systems have led to continuous activity along the 2,500 kilometers of borders between the Atlantic Alliance and Russia.

This military reinforcement of NATO's eastern flank is nothing new. It began in 2014, following Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, the acceleration of this process was formalized during NATO's annual summit in Madrid in June 2022 and is expected to receive renewed impetus during the upcoming summit in Washington from July 9 to 11. As the Alliance celebrates its 75^th anniversary, a new organization of the military high command is expected to be finalized, to coordinate all forces.

The belief that Russia will eventually seek to extend its expansionism westward of Ukraine is now widely held within NATO. "Currently, there's no direct confrontation with the Russians. Almost all their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine," said Joris Van Bladel, a specialist in Russian military matters and a senior associate at the Egmont Institute, the Royal Institute for International Relations, in Belgium. "But as soon as Moscow has the means to do so, possibly within the next two to five years, once its defense industry reorganizes, it will push the offensive. What we're witnessing currently on the eastern flank is actually a race against time," said Van Bladel.

Reset race

"A new era has begun: the pre-war era. I'm not exaggerating," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in a March interview. In this rearmament race, Poland is the country where the process is most significant. In addition to a massive reinvestment in its defense capabilities – 4.1% of GDP by 2024, quadrupling expenditures since 2014 – Warsaw has authorized the deployment of NATO troops at no fewer than eight sites within its territory. From 2,800 NATO-deployable troops in March 2018, the country has risen to a total of 12,000 today, including a substantial number of Americans.

You have 86.62% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.