The declarations are strong, but the facts more ambiguous. While the Europeans are pleased to have begun to take the future of their defense into their own hands and to stand united behind Ukraine, they are not yet totally credible. With European heads of state and government scheduled to meet in Brussels on Thursday, March 20, the 27 member states are still looking for the compromise that will enable them to hold their place in the new world order taking shape since Donald Trump's return to the White House.

In a major change, they now assert that they need to work together to better protect themselves at a time when the United States may no longer fund their security, and where Russia's imperialist aims are worrying. But the Commission's "ReArm Europe" plan, which is intended to accompany the war effort of the 27 member states, is only a "first step," as French President Emmanuel Macron put it on March 6.

It authorizes member states to activate a "national derogation clause," which exempts their defense spending from the rules of the Stability Pact and, in theory, frees them from the budgetary yoke to the tune of €650 billion. It also enables the Commission to borrow €150 billion, which it will then lend on favorable terms, and to organize joint purchases of military equipment. However, the 27 member states are unlikely to invest €800 billion in rearmament.

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