A potentially perilous countdown is underway for Joe Biden in the Middle East. The renewed hope of a ceasefire in Gaza, accompanied by the release of Israeli hostages held there since October 7, masks the deterioration of his relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the risk of failure in a field – diplomacy – in which he claims expertise forged by decades of hands-on experience.

The double explosion triggered by Hamas's unprecedented massacres of Israeli civilians, followed by the carnage wrought in Gaza by Israel's unrestrainedly violent response, rekindled Washington's interest in a two-state solution – the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel – in the very first weeks of this latest Israeli-Palestinian war. Over and above the legitimacy of the Palestinian claim, it appears to be a better guarantee of stability than the status quo advocated by Netanyahu, which has led to the current tragedy.

This objective was overlooked in the early years of the Democratic president's term, when his unconditional attachment to Israel is as much an indication of his age as his birth certificate is. For years, a gulf has been widening between the younger generations of Democrats and a Jewish state increasingly perceived as the oppressor of a minority.

Prior to October 7, the White House had been trying to achieve normalization between Israel and the region's most powerful Arab country, Saudi Arabia. The draft agreement mentioned the issue of Palestine, unlike the previous agreements reached in 2020 with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, but without making it a precondition.

The war changed everything. Saudi Arabia has revived the proposal put forward in 2002 by then-regent Prince Abdullah, linking normalization with Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with the approval of Washington, which would also include a defense agreement with Riyadh.

Since the agreement has to be ratified by the Senate before the November 5 presidential election, time is of the essence. Except that Netanyahu (like his more moderate potential heir, Benny Gantz) and a good proportion of Israelis don't want to hear about the prospect of a Palestinian state.

As chief saboteur of the Oslo Accords from 1996 to 1999, during his first stint as head of the Israeli government, Netanyahu intends to do everything in his power to defeat the Democratic president. He is undoubtedly hoping for Donald Trump's return to power. The former president's unilateralism in favor of Israel contributed in no small measure to the current disaster.

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