What will the weather be like during the Olympic and Paralympic Games? The question is on everyone's mind, but the answer is a real headache. Weather forecasts, which are not reliable beyond eight to 10 days, are made difficult by the particularly unstable and temperamental weather that has prevailed for months in northern France. The opening ceremony, which 300,000 people attended, was held under heavy rain. The utopian computer-generated images presented ahead of the event, showing the delegations' barges parading along the Seine in front of a magnificent sunset, were replaced by footage of drenched ponchos.

On Saturday, the weather will remain overcast and rainy for most of the day, with 5 to 10 mm of rain expected, and up to 15 mm locally.

Sunshine and warmth will be back from Sunday. "We're expecting a rise in warm air from the Iberian Peninsula, which will cause temperatures to rise throughout France," explained Lecou. Southwestern France and the Mediterranean region will experience a heat peak on Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures between 35°C and 39°C, before dropping off on Wednesday.

In Paris, the weather will be hot for much of next week, with temperatures reaching 30°C during the day (and 17°C or 18°C at its lowest at night) – compared with a seasonal norm of 27°C. The weather should also be fairly dry, "but we can't rule out showers or thunderstorms," said Lecou.

Forecasts for the week of August 5 remain impossible at this point. In 2022, anticyclone conditions enabled a two-week weather forecast. Nothing of the kind in 2024, when depressions are sweeping across northern France. "We can anticipate favorable conditions for the formation of thunderstorms 24 to 36 hours in advance, but we won't be able to say whether the thunderstorm cell will be over Paris, Courbevoie [west of Paris] or Melun [southeast of Paris] until a few hours beforehand," explained Lecou.

Trends for August, September, and October, published on July 22 by Météo-France, showed a warmer-than-normal quarter. "But this is an average. We can't know whether it will be 35°C on August 8," stated Lecou. "And that doesn't prevent the passage of disturbances or certain days with lower temperatures."

The risk of a heatwave, while not ruled out, "seems very low for this summer" according to climatologist Pascal Yiou, research director at the Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Sciences. "We've had a lot of water, very wet soils, so even if the weather becomes very sunny, we shouldn't reach extreme temperatures, which are linked to a drought." In the Paris region, the heatwave thresholds are 21°C at night and 31°C during the day for at least three days.

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