LETTER FROM BRUSSELS

Has the European Union (EU) had its "Olaf Scholz moment?" The German Chancellor, bogged down by domestic political problems, has not been known for his ability to help Europeans reach a compromise. However, in mid-December, at the meeting of the 27 EU member states in Brussels, he found a solution that avoided Hungary's veto against the opening of negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the EU.

For days, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban repeated his objections, arguing that the Union could not contemplate taking in a country at war and as corrupt as Ukraine. He furthered that its integration could only destabilize the community structure.

At the Council table on Thursday, December 14, his 26 counterparts once again explained at length why it was vital to send a strong political signal to Volodymyr Zelensky, at a time when his counteroffensive has stalled and the United States is involved in bitter internal debates over whether to continue providing aid to Kyiv. Above all, they reminded him of the need to stand firm against Vladimir Putin, who has been banking on the division of Europeans since the start of the war in Ukraine. Without achieving anything.

Suddenly, Scholz suggested that he and Orban "go and have a coffee," before other members decide to open accession negotiations. Scholz, a Social Democrat, is well acquainted with this technique, tried and tested within the SPD's Young Socialists working group (JUSOS), of which he was vice president in the early 1980s. The technique makes it possible to dispense with the vote of dissidents by making them leave. European law experts have confirmed that this can be replicated in Community affairs, since the abstention of one or other of the heads of state or government does not prevent a unanimous decision, as long as a certain quorum is reached.

The nationalist leader was quick to accept the Chancellor's unorthodox proposal. Especially as he can still derail the process: on two occasions in the coming months, the 27 member states will have to vote unanimously for accession negotiations to begin the process. It's hard to imagine the "coffee break" ploy being repeated.

On Friday, Orban was able to return to Budapest with his head held high, assuring his fellow citizens that "Hungary had no part in this bad decision," without permanently alienating his partners and running the risk that they would make him pay for his obstruction on other issues.

"It was clear that there was an arrangement between Scholz and Orban, before the Chancellor made his offer to the Hungarian prime minister," said a European diplomat. He added: "It was also clear from Scholz's speeches at the Council table that Germany is in favor of releasing EU funds" which Budapest has been deprived of due to its failure to uphold the rule of law. On Wednesday, on the eve of the summit, the Commission had already announced the release of €10 billion. There is another €20 billion to be released, which Budapest will not hesitate to ask for in its next showdown with Brussels.

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