"We're ready," said a West African minister in a firm voice. One of the region's heavyweights, his country was preparing to "use force" against the junta that has been in power in Niger since July 26, he said. "Our position has not changed, it's firmness. This is one coup too many," the minister added. The ultimatum for the Nigerien military to hand over power will expire on Sunday, August 6. Both sides of the conflict – the supporters of the junta's coup and the "legalists" calling for President Mohamed Bazoum to be reinstalled – are sticking to their guns and contemplating war. A military conflict between blocs of countries in West Africa would be unprecedented and risky.
On Friday, in Abuja, the capital of neighboring Nigeria and the fief of the legalists, ECOWAS chiefs of staff concluded a three-day meeting by announcing that the contours of a possible military intervention against the Niger junta had been defined, "including the resources required, and also how and when we will deploy the force," according to Abdel-Fatau Musah, the commissioner for political affairs and security.
A military source well-connected with West African command centers claimed that some 50,000 soldiers could be mobilized for the operation, a figure considered "plausible" by experts although it is only a "planning" amount subject to adjustment. It corresponds exactly to the number of men that the Nigerien army could field in 2025, according to projections made by the government. Several countries, including Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, have already confirmed their participation in the force. Chad – which does not belong to ECOWAS but whose president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, attempted mediation at the start of the coup – has announced that it will not participate.
It remained to be seen whether ECOWAS, which has already imposed heavy economic and financial sanctions, is flexing its muscles to get the coup leaders to back down or ready to go to war. "The military route is only the last option on the table," Musah said.
As the ultimatum draws closer, the path to dialogue seems to be turning into a dead end. The mediation team sent to Niamey on Wednesday by Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian head of state currently presiding over ECOWAS, was not received by General Abdourahamane Tiani, who presides over the National Council to Safeguard the Motherland (CNSP). And it was not able to meet Bazoum, who remains sequestered.
Nigeria is the centerpiece of the operation, which will mobilize ground and air resources. "If Abuja is in, there will be a military operation; if they back out, there won't be one," said the military source. The country, which shares 1,500 kilometers of borders with Niger, is ready to provide the largest contingent as well as dozens of armored vehicles.
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