It's always the same method. Regarding New Caledonia, as with other issues, Emmanuel Macron, under pressure for several months to move forward, has adopted his own modus operandi to secure a vote on modifying the electoral body, despite opposition from the pro-independence camp. First, give loyalists and pro-independence groups time to negotiate. Then, set a deadline for them to reach an agreement before the end of June. Finally, if no agreement is reached within this timeframe, take back control of the matter to make a decision. Many New Caledonian experts have criticized this force-through approach.
For several months, they have been warning the head of state, urging him to "give time some time," due to the explosive atmosphere on the archipelago since the third independence referendum in December 2021. It has been to no avail. Just as he previously refused to postpone the referendum as requested by some of the pro-independence camp, Macron is now refusing to grant a new deadline for the vote on the constitutional bill modifying the island's electoral.
Officially, it's because of the upcoming provincial elections, which could wait until fall 2025. Unofficially, it's because of the Olympic Games. "New Caledonia is a place where you have to do things slowly, avoiding sudden bursts of acceleration," said Dominique Bussereau, former president of the parliamentary mission on New Caledonia. "Recently, there has been an acceleration that could have waited until fall."
"Blackmailing with deadlines is something that has never worked" in New Caledonia, agreed Jean-François Merle, who was an adviser to former French Prime Minister Michel Rocard for overseas France during the negotiation of the Matignon agreements on the archipelago in 1988. "The non-independents, who got what they wanted with the 'unfreezing' of the electorate. What interest do they have in reaching an agreement? None at all! And for the pro-independent camp, that's called negotiating with a gun to their heads. It's not a method," said the expert at the Fondation Jean Jaurès (a French think tank).
Macron regularly resorts to this ultimatum strategy. On December 12, 2023, during the examination of the immigration bill, which had been rejected by the Assemblée Nationale, the head of state decided to refer the text to a joint committee (CMP) instead of having a new reading in both chambers. He justified this decision on the grounds that the text had to be completed "before Christmas." This move aimed to manage his deeply divided majority.
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