It's a moment Benjamin Netanyahu has been anticipating. In the midst of Israel's air campaign against Hezbollah, a possible prelude to a ground war in Lebanon, which threatens to open up a Middle East-wide conflict, the prime minister was due to arrive at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Thursday, September 26. He is confident an attentive audience will listen to his speech on Friday, when he is expected to comment on his intentions regarding the conflict in Lebanon.

After several days of an intense bombing campaign that has seriously damaged Hezbollah, Netanyahu may opt to extend operations in Lebanon, in the form of a ground offensive to clear a buffer zone there. Alternatively, he may decide to halt the escalation by accepting a ceasefire plan pushed by the US and its allies, including France, and Arab and European countries.

However, the chances of this seem remote. On Wednesday, Israel's chief of the general staff Herzi Halevi said that two additional brigades of reservists are to be sent to the north of the country, where reinforcements are pouring in. "We are preparing the process of a manoeuver, which means your military boots... will enter enemy territory, penetrate villages that Hezbollah has transformed into military positions, equipped with underground infrastructure."

The same day, in New York, the Israeli ambassador to the UN Danny Danon, warned that if diplomacy failed to "return Israelis to their homes, [some 60,000 Israelis in the north of the country have had to leave their homes in recent months], we will use all the means at our disposal in accordance with international law".

The talk is of regional warfare, of Iran – a supporter of Hezbollah – and of an "existential threat" to Israel. For Netanyahu, the din of gunfire on the Lebanese border also has the advantage of drowning out the ongoing operations and bombardments in Gaza. Yet it is impossible to disconnect the conflict in Lebanon from the war in the Gazan enclave, not least because Hezbollah has repeatedly said, since it began firing toward Israel on October 8, 2023, the day after Hamas attacked Israel, that it would put an end to the war as soon as an agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas.

However, international mediators trying to secure a ceasefire have given up hope of getting the two sides to agree. In Israel this reluctance – encouraged by the coalition government's far right, which describes any agreement as a surrender – is largely attributed to the prime minister's intransigence. Some sections of public opinion have been appalled by the prospect of the almost certain death of Israeli hostages – half of them have already died, according to Netanyahu – if the conflict in Gaza continues.

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