At 9 pm, both camps claimed victory, but the headquarters of each candidate displayed the same cautious enthusiasm. An exit poll by Ipsos showed 50.3% for Rafal Trzaskowski and 49.7% for Karol Nawrocki. Despite the slim 0.6-point difference, well below the margin of error, Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, did not hesitate to declare victory, stating he wanted "to heal the country's divisions" and be "the president of all Poles."

"The phrase 'razor-thin' will endure in Polish vocabulary," he added, referencing the narrow results that had been predicted for weeks by the polls.

Several of his partners from the liberal coalition that won the legislative elections on October 10, 2023, also acted rashly, congratulating him immediately. In front of the presidential palace, near Warsaw's Old Town, a modest celebration broke out spontaneously, carried by about one hundred supporters of the centrist candidate. However, speaking to reporters, most admitted they were "keeping their fingers crossed" or "praying" that the outcome would not be reversed.

Meanwhile, at Nawrocki's headquarters, the mood remained combative. "Tonight, we will win," the nationalist candidate declared before a hand-picked crowd and a group of Law and Justice (PiS) party leaders. "We will win and we will save Poland. We will not allow the power monopoly of [Prime Minister] Donald Tusk to become entrenched, that bad government which strips us of our aspirations and our dreams."

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