The scene took place in July, just hours before the opening of the annual NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. All smiles, the secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg from Norway, announced that, to everyone's surprise, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had just agreed to lift his opposition to Sweden's application to join the alliance. Stoltenberg welcomed a "historic" day, which was immediately applauded by US President Joe Biden, who praised the "diplomacy, courage and leadership" of his Ankara counterpart.

Two days later, on July 12, at the end of the summit, Erdogan specified that in the fall, when the work of the legislature resumes, the president of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey will bring the Stockholm accession protocol to a vote. He added, "We want this process to end as soon as possible."

Months have gone by, and one thing is certain: Turkey has still not ratified Sweden's accession, and it's not clear when Ankara will keep its promise. The Turkish president did send the memorandum of understanding to the Assembly at the end of October. But the Committee of Foreign Affairs, largely dominated by the head of state's party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), adjourned debate on the legislation on November 16, without giving any further details.

No real explanation was given. It was barely made public that AKP MPs had filed a motion that said that negotiations with Stockholm had "not reached sufficient maturity." Committee Chairman Fuat Oktay then told reporters that the Swedish ambassador might be invited to the next session in order to provide further information on the measures taken by his country to address Turkey's security concerns. And then, nothing.

The only thing that is known for sure is that the Ankara authorities warned NATO a few days ago that the vote would not take place before the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on November 28 and 29.

Turkey's situation is strange: It is one NATO country among others, in principle, but one that seems deliberately intent on reminding the Alliance at every opportunity that it is a difficult and wilful ally, anxious to maximize its interests or gains indefinitely, even if this means exposing its own contradictions and exhausting the "strategic patience" of its allies.

The ratification of Sweden's accession by Turkish MPs can be achieved by 141 votes – in other words, just over half of the AKP's elected representatives in the Assembly, with a total of 267 seats (322 with its ultra-nationalist and Islamist allies) out of the 600 in total. "In theory, a simple phone call from the president is enough to pass such a text in a second," admitted an adviser to the Turkish Parliament.

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