After more than 30 years of conflict, Azerbaijan forcibly defeated the self-proclaimed authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh. A ceasefire agreement was signed on Wednesday, September 20, under the aegis of Moscow, ending the large-scale offensive launched the previous day by Baku's forces on the disputed enclave.

Under the terms of the document, the separatist leaders agree to disarm and begin negotiations to reintegrate the territory into Azerbaijan, a historic turning point, marking Baku's victory for control of this small mountainous region of the Caucasus, located on its territory but populated mainly by Armenians.

The text provides for "the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of Armenia's armed forces (...), the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army." It specifies that a first round of negotiations on guaranteeing the rights and security of the enclave's residents will be held between the two parties on September 21 in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh.

Azerbaijan has "re-established its sovereignty" in Nagorno-Karabakh, a triumphant Ilham Aliev, the country's president, said in a televised address on Wednesday, adding his army had "destroyed most" of the Armenian separatists' forces and equipment.

However, there were no scenes of jubilation on Baku's streets on Wednesday, according to a number of people contacted locally. "There are no celebrations at the moment. People are waiting for the outcome of the talks tomorrow [Thursday]," said a human rights activist who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Negotiations on guaranteeing the rights and security of Armenians in the enclave, which declared itself independent in 1991, will be held "in small groups," according to Elchin Amirbayov, the special representative of the president of Azerbaijan. Ramin Mammadov, a member of parliament from Karabakh, will lead the delegation. "two or three people are expected on the Armenian side," Amirbayov said. "They won't be members of the puppet government, as we have no intention of granting it any legitimacy. The Russians will probably provide their security, but it will be a bilateral dialogue in which they will not participate."

Moscow, anxious not to lose its influence in the region despite its weakening due to the war in Ukraine, insisted it would be involved in the talks. "These negotiations will take place with the mediation of the leadership of the Russian peacekeeping contingent," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin. Some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers have been deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh since the end of the second war in the disputed enclave in 2020.

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